Could ‘Cruel Summer’ Become Taylor Swift’s Biggest Chart Hit?

While the top 10 of this week’s Hot 100 chart includes new entries from Beyoncé and Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign — along with Noah Kahan collecting his first top 10 hit — one years-old smash is still going strong amidst the shakeups: “Cruel Summer” dips two spots to No. 6 this week in its 41st week on the chart.

The viral resurgence of the synth-pop gem from Swift’s Lover, which was not released as a single during the 2019 album run, began in 2023 to coincide with the launch of her Eras Tour, eventually brought the song to the top of the Hot 100 last October, and has continued through the start of 2024 with no end in sight.

As the song spends another week in the upper reaches of the Hot 100, its unlikely run has prompted another improbable question: Could “Cruel Summer” become the biggest chart hit of Swift’s career?

At this moment, “Summer” has climbed to No. 3 on the list of Swift’s biggest Billboard Hot 100 hits, behind her 2014 smash “Shake It Off” and “Anti-Hero,” the longest-running No. 1 of her career. See here the top 10 of Swift’s biggest Billboard Hot 100 hits, which is based on weekly performance on the Hot 100 (through Feb. 24, 2024), with further analysis below — and click here for the full top 50:

Songs are ranked based on an inverse point system, with weeks at No. 1 earning the greatest value and weeks at lower spots earning the least. Due to changes in chart methodology over the years, eras are weighted differently to account for chart turnover rates during various periods.

Part of the reason why “Shake It Off” and “Anti-Hero” still outrank “Summer” is longevity: “Anti-Hero” spent 53 weeks on the Hot 100 and “Shake It Off” hung around for 50 weeks, while, as of now, “Summer” hasn’t cracked Swift’s top 5 longest-running Hot 100 hits. Here are Swift’s top 10 songs by weeks on the Hot 100:

Meanwhile, “Summer” has logged four nonconsecutive weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100 — the same number of weeks at “Shake It Off.” “Anti-Hero” became Swift’s longest-running No. 1 hit last year when it notched eight weeks atop the chart, while “Blank Space” had Swift’s second-longest run in the top spot, with seven weeks.

So how has “Summer” become Swift’s third-biggest chart hit, if other songs have spent more weeks at No. 1 or more time on the chart itself? By remaining a top 10 stalwart for months on end.

This week marks “Summer’s” 30th week in the top 10 of the Hot 100 — the most of any Swift song. “Anti-Hero” ranks second in frames spent in the top 10, at 28 weeks. “Summer” first reached the top 10 way back on the Hot 100 chart dated July 15, 2023, and became her longest-running top 10 hit earlier this month.

It’s impossible to say whether or not “Summer” will keep climbing up her personal list and become Swift’s biggest (or second-biggest) chart hit, or precisely the number of weeks and/or chart placements it will take to get there. And while the song dips two spots in the top 10 of the Hot 100, “Summer” still remains in the top 5 of Adult Pop Airplay, top 10 of Pop Airplay and top 20 of Streaming Songs, as well as No. 1 at Adult Contemporary for a fourth week.

“Summer” is still going strong as it climbs Swift’s all-time list of hits, adding another layer to the unlikely chart success of a song that was never supposed to be a chart hit. Who knows? Maybe “Summer” earns the top spot just as actual summer approaches.